By Denis Jjuuko
When the planners of the war on Iran sat to make the final decision, they perhaps envisaged a quick win. Fly in, kill the leader and a few others and the country would collapse. Your chosen leaders would then take over and pledge allegiance, after all you are the world’s super power. Oil would flow to wherever you want it.
As the leader of America, Donald Trump would be expected to stand somewhere in the White House and announce how the greatest military on Earth has performed. The new leaders in Tehran would repost his every post. A red carpet would soon be rolled out at the White House where the new leaders in Tehran commit to pay allegiance to the Americans and their Israeli backers.
Washington would announce the end of sanctions and beckon American companies to take on the reconstruction of Iran. A date for a return visit to Tehran would be announced. Donald Trump would step on the improvised steps of Air Force One and utter the word ‘freedom’ while clenching his fist. At a speech in Tehran where school kids are waving paper flags of Iran and USA, he would warn others of what will come if they don’t fall in line. Fox News would declare him the greatest leader America has ever had. Trump would demand the Nobel Prize committee to award him. He has saved the world of potential nuclear weapons. Hollywood writers would scramble for pieces of paper to script a blockbuster.
However, Iran seems to have had different ideas. The writers must now be writing but not the grand movie. American contractors are waiting, unsure when their reconstruction deals will be inked. Trump posts one thing after another, perhaps once in a while, remembering the famous quote from Sun Tzu’s the Art of War: the best way to win a war is not to fight.
Iran defied the odds. Two military powers have dropped thousands of bombs on its facilities and leaders but it has been able to somewhat fight back and even forced ceasefire talks in Islamabad, Pakistan even if they ended without any deal.
When you think of Iran, you always want to think of Africa or at least one country in Africa since the continent is not homogenous. Is there one that can stand up to the world powers? Perhaps none. Our natural resources are not used strategically. In fact, they have been a source of endless wars. Look at the Democratic Republic of Congo for example. I consider them the richest country on earth but they can’t even complete their Inga Dam or construct bitumen standard roads. Uganda, a potholed nation, is helping them in the eastern parts of the country.
Nigeria had to wait for a private person to build a mega oil refinery. They preferred to export crude and import the refined products. If an individual businessman can mobilize resources and build a refinery, what about a country? And you can say that about all oil producing countries on the continent. We have conditioned ourselves to export raw materials and import everything.
The Iranians didn’t wait to import everything. They made their Shahed drones, they developed their missiles program and created a system that wasn’t depending on a single strongman whose assassination would lead everything to crumble. They built universities and given that they are forcing Americans to sit on a negotiation table, it means they didn’t fill their key positions based on blood relationships or who could praise their leaders loudest.
They also understood leverage. Their location provided them with the Strait of Hormuz through which 20 percent of the world oil passes. They understood that 20% of the world’s oil can’t be ignored. They understood that their location gives them an opportunity to fight back or take the war to the enablers of their adversaries.
They didn’t spend half their time blaming the Americans for the economic sanctions imposed on them. They found a way to prepare themselves for a war that they knew that one day would come. Had the Iranians been some of the African leaders, they would be blaming colonialists while sending their kids to western universities and keeping whatever money they land on in Swiss banks.
Research and development would mean nothing. The most energetic labour force would be carted off to find jobs as domestic workers while being urged to save and come back and be job creators.
Had we been Iran, how would we be strategically using River Nile, Lake Victoria, the near perfect weather we sing about and all the resources we have?
The writer is a communication and visibility consultant. djjuuko@gmail.com
